Between work, weddings, and all kinds of other family/social stuff going on, I 've had little opportunity to spend any time posting. I'm not complaining, just mentioning it.
I still have a losing record - when I have a chance I'll compile it. On to the games:
Todays 1 PM Games:
@ Pats –6.5 vs Jets
This isn’t a bet on the Pats, but against the J-E-T-S, Jets; The injury to Chad Pennington and with Wayne Chrebet and Lamont Jordan Hurting, and the off season free agent desertions of Laverneus Coles, Chad Morton and John Hall have left the Jets with an aging Vinnie and Curtis Martin as THE OFFENSE – and they’ve scored only 23 total points against Washington and Miami! Don’t expect a bounce back, as there is no offense to bounce back with!
And now the defense hurting with the injury of Donnie Abrahams.
You can expect Bellichek to work on the running and deep passing attacks against the Jets – you can epect the Pats special teams to leave both the offense and defense in enviable field position.
@ Detroit +3.5 vs the Vikes
A few trends:
Minny has 16 road wins and 25 road losses since ’98 and 2-6 last year on the road; they were 0-4 as road favs last year, 4-9 over the last 3 years as road favs.
Detroit was 5-2 a home dog last year, and 15-5 over the last 3 years.
Detroit is becoming a fierce home defender creaming Arizona 42-24 in their sole home game this year, while the Vikes are pumped up after two good wins vs other division opponents GB and Chicago.
I expect Minny to suffer a let down while The Mooch has the Lions UP to protect their home turf.
New Orleans @ Tennessee over 43.5
Strictly trends
NO had 12 over and 4 under in ’02 and they’ve played 28 over and 12 under on the road over the last 5 years. They’re also 8 over and 2 under on road grass over the last two years, and 20-9 over the last 6 years.
Tennessee is 13-4 over at home over the last 17 games, 14-4 over vs once a year teams, and 8-1 over when combined, vs once per year teams at home.
Last year the average home total for the Titans was 42 and the average road total for the Saints was just under 44
Pitt-4 @ Cincy
Pittsburgh got their asses handed to them as they were blown out at KC last week, while the Bungals lost a close one at Oakland – “A” types of teams usually rebound after a bad loss, while “C” types of teams like Cincy usually struggle after losing a close game. Last year, Cincy’s average Margin of loss was just over 15.5 points; their average margin on their 7 home losses was 16.3 points.
Giants @ Washington under 43
Last week, both teams scored in the 30’s, while allowing the other team to also score in the 30’s. I think we’ll see the defenses go to work this week – with neither team scoring more than 21.
Recap:
Pats -6.5
Detroit +3.5
NO/Tenn over 43.5
Pitt -4
Giants/Wash under 43
Good luck!
I still have a losing record - when I have a chance I'll compile it. On to the games:
Todays 1 PM Games:
@ Pats –6.5 vs Jets
This isn’t a bet on the Pats, but against the J-E-T-S, Jets; The injury to Chad Pennington and with Wayne Chrebet and Lamont Jordan Hurting, and the off season free agent desertions of Laverneus Coles, Chad Morton and John Hall have left the Jets with an aging Vinnie and Curtis Martin as THE OFFENSE – and they’ve scored only 23 total points against Washington and Miami! Don’t expect a bounce back, as there is no offense to bounce back with!
And now the defense hurting with the injury of Donnie Abrahams.
You can expect Bellichek to work on the running and deep passing attacks against the Jets – you can epect the Pats special teams to leave both the offense and defense in enviable field position.
@ Detroit +3.5 vs the Vikes
A few trends:
Minny has 16 road wins and 25 road losses since ’98 and 2-6 last year on the road; they were 0-4 as road favs last year, 4-9 over the last 3 years as road favs.
Detroit was 5-2 a home dog last year, and 15-5 over the last 3 years.
Detroit is becoming a fierce home defender creaming Arizona 42-24 in their sole home game this year, while the Vikes are pumped up after two good wins vs other division opponents GB and Chicago.
I expect Minny to suffer a let down while The Mooch has the Lions UP to protect their home turf.
New Orleans @ Tennessee over 43.5
Strictly trends
NO had 12 over and 4 under in ’02 and they’ve played 28 over and 12 under on the road over the last 5 years. They’re also 8 over and 2 under on road grass over the last two years, and 20-9 over the last 6 years.
Tennessee is 13-4 over at home over the last 17 games, 14-4 over vs once a year teams, and 8-1 over when combined, vs once per year teams at home.
Last year the average home total for the Titans was 42 and the average road total for the Saints was just under 44
Pitt-4 @ Cincy
Pittsburgh got their asses handed to them as they were blown out at KC last week, while the Bungals lost a close one at Oakland – “A” types of teams usually rebound after a bad loss, while “C” types of teams like Cincy usually struggle after losing a close game. Last year, Cincy’s average Margin of loss was just over 15.5 points; their average margin on their 7 home losses was 16.3 points.
Giants @ Washington under 43
Last week, both teams scored in the 30’s, while allowing the other team to also score in the 30’s. I think we’ll see the defenses go to work this week – with neither team scoring more than 21.
Recap:
Pats -6.5
Detroit +3.5
NO/Tenn over 43.5
Pitt -4
Giants/Wash under 43
Good luck!
